US government layoffs raise labor market risks

Political uncertainty and labor market risks dominate this week, with US government layoffs, Canada’s high unemployment, and Japan’s coalition shakeup in focus.

The Week in Markets

Gold breaks $4,000 as credibility strains lift havens

Gold’s historic run pushed above $4,000/oz, extending a near-50% rally this year as investors questioned central bank credibility and sought protection from policy-driven currency risks.

Sprott said rising long-term bond yields “reflect waning confidence in fiscal and monetary policy,” driving investors toward tangible stores of value like gold. UBP - Union Bancaire Privée lifted gold to its highest conviction level, raising its 2026 price target to $4,600, and calling gold a “reliable hedge” against political risk and dollar weakness.

Franklin Templeton latest Allocation Views report also said its view on commodities had improved, "as a weakening US dollar and persistent inflation increase gold’s attraction as a diversifier."

Secondaries to the rescue

Matthew Roche, a partner on our Private Equity Secondaries team, shares how liquidity has become valuable currency in today’s private markets and how secondaries are reshaping the landscape. As LPs...

Candriam Global High Yield: Selective, Proven, and Resilient

Candriam Bonds Global High Yield seeks to deliver yield above 6.5% with a duration of around three years — aiming to balance income generation and risk management across a global, diversified unive...

Australian Superannuation Leaders Head to UK to Explore Long-Term Investment Opportunities

A delegation of Australian superannuation fund leaders head to the UK later this month to explore investment opportunities which aim to boost the retirement savings of millions of working people an...

Latest Outlooks

2025 Capital Markets Assumptions

Our macro scenarios reflect our view that a hard landing for the U.S. economy looks increasingly likely, although a soft landing is still possible. Inflation forecasts and other key factors underpi...

Long Term Capital Market Expectations: July 2025

The July 2025 edition of MFS' Long-Term Capital Market Expectations includes proprietary expectations that look at return and risk across a variety of asset classes and regions. This version detail...

Capital market assumptions

Our latest capital market assumptions (CMAs) include India rupee-denominated CMAs to capture the long-term opportunity we see unfolding in India. Our CMAs also reflect the rise in global bond yield...

Capital Market Assumptions – Long-term return forecasts

Although navigating by the stars can seem brave and adventurous, we would not recommend it on financial markets. Better be equipped with a solid compass!

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