Muzinich Weekly Market Comment: U-turns

It was a short week due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. However, market price action was supportive as positive sentiment returned and our preferred sentiment index, the VIX, fell sharply back below 17 from a high-stress level of 25, the previous week.

The Week in Markets

UK Budget triggers gilts whipsaw as investors question credibility

UK markets swung after Rachel Reeves’ Budget delivered more near-term spending and back-loaded tax rises, prompting questions over fiscal credibility even as gilts initially rallied.

PIMCO said the Chancellor’s £22bn headroom removed the “risk premium” built up after November’s income-tax U-turn, but warned that borrowing will rise for the next three years and that delivery - not forecasts - now matters.

Royal London Asset Management called the package a “masterclass in mixed signals”, highlighting lingering inflation risks from minimum-wage increases. Both firms said the curve’s focus now shifts to rate-cut prospects, with PIMCO favouring 5-year gilts and RLAM noting that the DMO’s sharp cut to long-dated issuance has supported the long end. Meanwhile, State Street Investment Management added that fiscal-sustainability concerns risk prompting capital flight due to its high dependency on overseas investors (see chart).

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