Market Perspectives: How serious is the US threat to Europe over Greenland?

It’s been another busy week in terms of geopolitics as the US continues to ramp up rhetoric around the ownership of Greenland.

The Week in Markets

Fed independence becomes live market risk

Markets were forced to price a once-unthinkable scenario this week after the US Justice Department opened a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell, sharpening concerns over political pressure on the Federal Reserve.

Federated Hermes said the episode “raises uncertainty" ahead of the January FOMC, and warned it could revive a broader “sell America” narrative if it escalates.

Invesco US called the investigation a “new and material challenge for risk assets”, arguing that legal intimidation - not jawboning - is the red line markets have yet to test. While initial reaction was contained, asset managers warned that erosion of central-bank independence risks higher inflation expectations, and upward pressure on yields. A separate BlackRock note suggested early-year inflation risks could already “curb expectations for Fed rate cuts”, suggesting that political pressure on the Fed complicates - rather than accelerates - the easing path.

Understanding the Israeli Mid-Cap Market

Over extended market cycles, Israel’s mid-cap equities have often delivered strong growth, driven by their greater sensitivity to domestic economic trends. Despite this, mid-cap companies remain un...

Finding returns through curve positioning

With spreads well below long term averages and government bond curves pricing in what central banks are likely to do in the next few quarters, opportunities for capital gains through spread compres...

Washington brandishes tariffs, Europe discovers the price of dependence

By making the imposition of new tariffs conditional on Europe's acceptance of its plan to acquire Greenland, Donald Trump is taking a further step in the use of trade as an instrument of geopolitic...

Latest Outlooks

Equity outlook: A positive set-up

Bullish equity outlook for 2026: easing monetary policy, strong emerging markets, AI-driven growth—plus the key geopolitical risks to watch.

Q1'2026 Market Outlook | Year of Recalib(e)ration

As we enter 2026, the starting point of the year will be a demanding one. Valuations across major markets are elevated and market leadership has become increasingly narrow. This calls for disciplin...

Venezuela Regime Change: Market Implications and Investment Outlook

The U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro signals a major geopolitical shift. Explore what this means for oil, debt markets and global investing.

Fixed-Income Outlook 2026: Bedrock and Balance

2025 was a banner year for bonds. We think more of the same is in store for 2026. Fixed income enters 2026 from a position of strength. Returns in 2025 were solid across sectors, supported by de...

Sustainable investment: An improving context for 2026

The last 12 months have been characterised by an increasingly complex and uncertain policy landscape, making it difficult for investors to cut through the noise. Despite this, we see continued supp...

Emerging Markets: The Next Phase in Market-Broadening

CIO Weekly Perspectives | January 19, 2026 Emerging Markets: The Next Phase in Market-Broadening

A strong start for credit, but discipline is key

On Monday, risk markets opened on the front foot after largely shrugging off the weekend’s geopolitical news. Stock markets rallied, led by large-cap energy companies that stand to benefit from the...

Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

The 30th annual edition explores how rising economic nationalism and fiscal activism create both challenges and silver linings for investors. Technology adoption will provide a near-term boost to p...

Capital Market Assumptions

Why a new economic regime calls for a reassessment of risk and rewards

PNC Healthcare: Capital Markets Update - September 2025

Explore market data and capital markets trends for nonprofit healthcare providers as the economic backdrop and interest rate outlook evolves.

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